PHOTOOG Photography writings by Olivier Giroux


Photokina 2010 Predictions

We're just entering the "pre Photokina" period,  a period always rich with rumors, leaks, pre-launches...

Here are my predictions for this season's big events:


For Nikon I see some really obvious things, and little room for the anything else.  I think we can predict exactly what's going to happen and the disappointing part (no micro) shouldn't be a surprise.

For sure: some beginner junk.
For sure: amateur D90 replacement with 1080p video.
For sure: amateur 18-70mm f/3.5-4.5 VR (or similar) to go with the new body.
For sure: professional 85mm f/1.4, with or without VR.
For sure: enthusiast 24-120mm f/3.5-4.5 VR.
Maybe: enthusiast FX body with D-movie.
Maybe: enthusiast telephoto lens (70-200mm f/4 VR or 300mm f/4 VR or 80-400mm f/4.5-5.6 VR or 200mm f/2.8 VR).
Epic fail: no amateur/enthusiast micro camera with interchangeable lenses.


For Canon I see a similar certainty in the future as with Nikon, but I think there's a small chance we'll be very happily surprised.

For sure: some beginner junk (but less junky than Nikon's).
For sure: professional 1Ds Mk-IV with 2K/3K/4K video and/or RAW video.
For sure: amateur 60D.
For sure: professional 35mm f/1.4 Mk-II.
Maybe: enthusiast 17-40mm f/4 Mk-II.
Maybe: enthusiast 400mm f/5.6 IS.
Epic fail: no amateur/enthusiast Canon micro camera with interchangeable lenses.


Sony has some predictable things coming, but mostly it's all up in the air.  It would be tremendous of Sony did something with their HEXAR intellectual property.

For sure: amateur NEX camera, to complement the current beginner crop.
For sure: an enthusiast NEX lens that hasn't been pre-announced yet, maybe Zeiss-designed.
Maybe: a full-frame NEX in a rangefinder styling.
Epic fail: no missed opportunity would sink Sony this year (thanks to NEX).


Zeiss is a real wildcard this year.  They have one thing we're pretty sure is coming, but anything else is anyone's guess.  They have a really Epic opportunity to shine here but will they seize it?  We'll find out.

For sure: professional 35mm f/1.4 for ZF/ZE/ZK.
Maybe: professional 200mm f/2.8 for ZF/ZE/ZK.
Maybe: enthusiast ??mm f/?? for ZM, I just can tell which, a 28mm f/2 ASPH would be nice.
Epic fail: no Digital Ikon. (*)

(*) God I wish. I wish so much. Shit, now I’m wishing again.


Leica did so well last year that I think they can ride out this year, litterally coasting.  However a couple new things would go a long way.  They also have a huge opportunity with the micro-cameras gaining momentum - technically they are not competing, but in the hearts and minds of many they actually are - Leica should capitalize on this.

For sure: nothing is for sure with Leica.
Maybe: enthusiast 90mm f/2 APO with floating element.
Maybe: enthusiast 28-35-50 f/4 Elmar ASPH II – I predict this is coming, but maybe not this year.
Maybe: enthusiast ?? camera, like an X1 with a lens mount and an EVF, that would be amazing.
Epic fail: Leica doesn't have any "must have" this year.


Sigma got a few things really right recently, and their push on classic primes has ways to go yet.  I hope they take it much further.

For sure: another refresh of beginner "2nd lens" kit lenses.
For sure: enthusiast fast wide-angle prime (21mm f/2, 24mm f/2, 28mm f/2 or faster).
For sure: amateur lenses for micro-4/3, preview only not hard launch.
Maybe: enthusiast telephoto primes (200 f/2.8, 300 f/4, 400 f/5.6).
Epic fail: no amateur/enthusiast micro camera with interchangeable lenses.


I really don't expect much from Panasonic this fall.  I think they will only refine what they already have on the market today.

For sure: amateur updated GF2.
Maybe: any number of 100 things.
Epic fail: nothing would hurt Panasonic if was left undone.


I have higher expectations of Olympus, because they have stirred up associations to a glorious past.  I want to see a micro-4/3 that feels like a rangefinder.

For sure: nothing is certain for Olympus.
Maybe: enthusiast EP-3 with a built-in EVF in an RF styling.
Epic fail: nothing is terrible for Olympus either.

And now we wait.



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  1. Ah man…so many awesome lenses, so little money! Blerg.

    Thanks for the info though!

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